This post is updated as information becomes available.
Original Post Feb 12 2010
NOAA and the USGS have released an initial projection for spring flooding in the Devils Lake region.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/weekly.php?wfo=fgf&gage=dcbn8&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1&toggles=10,7,8,2,9,15,6
Click to Enlarge
Devils Lake Flood Forecast
Update 1: Feb 22 2010
I looks like the national weather service has slightly decreased the lake level expectation for the spring. There is now a 90 percent chance of the lake hitting 1,450.9 feet, which will likely surpass the record of 1,450.73 feet. The new prediction shows about a 35% chance that the lake will surpass 1,452, which represents a 25% drop from 60 percent three weeks ago.
I really don’t understand why they dropped the estimate. Keep in mind their predictions are just a best guess, and it is better to assume that the lake will get to at least 1,452 sometime during the summer. All it takes is one or two big snow storms or a single large rain event to completely change the model.
Updated Graphics
- (Feb Update)
Update 2: March 9 2010
It appears that I was right to question lowering the expected level. NOAA has increased the expected lake level again.
Exceedance Probability forecast for Devils Lake level over the next 90 Days
Devils Lake Level Probability by Week for summer 2010
We will see if the rain this week has any affect on the flood outlook for Devils Lake. It is certainly going to put a dent in the snow pack.
