Yayyy! They arrested Josh Fox…  Wait what?

As I saw this article come floating across my Facebook page I thought I was going to be happy that the ass hole finally got what he deserved, but the only problem is that I am on his side this time.   He was trying to film a public congressional hearing regarding the EPA’s report on Pavillion, Wy. He didn’t have all the paperwork he needed, but they still shouldn’t have arrested him. Apparently, it is not uncommon for film crews to be lacking the necessary paperwork, but still be allowed to film (Fox claims he attempted to get the paperwork earlier in the day and was denied, but I would bet they had a reason).  Regardless, He was not causing any real trouble, and given the situation, I probably would have done the same thing.

This act by the GOP will only give his second documentary more power.  Realistically, I would have liked to see what the EPA had to say regarding their report.  I read the report the day it was released on the internet and the only thing they really found was hydrocarbons in a formation that produces hydrocarbons, and drilling chemicals that they used to drill their own monitoring wells. Also, they use the word ground water and do not clarify that it is not drinking water as you are lead to believe by all the newspaper authors that did not know the difference.  I do not think the EPA’s report would have ever made it through a real peer review process because the dots they try to connect are too far apart (or don’t exist at all).  If you thought the report provided the link between hydraulic fracturing and ground water contamination, please read the follow up articles that were posted a few weeks later. Industry, the state of WY, and newspapers all had rebuttals. Papers by the USGS in the 1990s show similar “contamination” problems which seems to indicate that the EPA didn’t do a very good literature review (before the area was fracked).  It really does not matter at this point the damage has already been done, but it was clear that the release of a draft document was more driven by agenda than science. (Try to find other documents released the same way.  I bet you will not find many)

I apologize for not sourcing any of my statements. I’m too lazy tonight, but I wanted to say something about this before I forgot about it.  If you have any questions about anything I said please just ask and I will hunt up the necessary links. (You could always just Google it)

UPDATE:

http://flackops.blogspot.com/2012/02/gaslight-flim-flam-by-josh-fox.html

Save some time.

http://geothunder.com/2011/06/05/josh-fox-bs/

http://geothunder.com/2011/01/09/hydraulic-fracturing-and-americas-future/

http://geothunder.com/2010/12/11/gasland-josh-fox-and-a-world-of-misinformation/

Not Evil Just Wrong posted a video of Josh Fox being asked questions regarding previous knowledge of flaming sinks prior to fracking and Josh liked it so much that a copyright claim was used to get the video taken off of youtube. He will likely do the same on Vimeo, but for now you can watch it here. For the record this video should fall under fair use which makes legal to use a clip from josh fox’s film.

Should the video be removed from Vimeo you can try these mirror links. Most video players should be able to play the file. Make sure to credit Not Evil Just Wrong if you happen to re-post anything.
Mirror 1
Mirror 2
Mirror 3

As you can probably tell from my other posts on this site I advocate utilizing as many sources of energy as possible, but I also try to be realistic and consider environmental and economic factors.

Please Note: This is a living document, and  should improve as better sources and more information are found.  Please feel free to provide input and criticize.

So what does it mean to be green?
Part 1
- Potential Cumulative Energy Production

Part 2 and 3?
- Land Usage
- Some Thoughts on EROEI (energy returned on energy invested)

Solar:

In the best case around 260 kWh/ sq ft per year reaches the surface of the earth. (New Mexico)

A large portion of the United States is closer to 211 kWh/ sq ft per year.

The most efficient solar cell that can be purchased in today’s market is about 29% but an average solar cell would convert about 13% the total solar energy it receives to usable power.

Best case .29*260 = 75.4 kWh/ sq ft per year.

What I will call average .13*211 = 27.4 kWh/ sq ft per year. (average based on land not population distribution)

An average US home uses 8,900 kilowatt-hours of electricity each year. (Probably a little high)

Good: 8,900 kWh/y year / 75.4kWh/y = 118.1 sq ft
Average:  8,900 kWh/y year / 27.4kWh/y = 324.8 sq ft
Price per square foot for solar panels ranges between 100 and 300 sq ft installed so $150 seems possible.

Good: $150 * 118.1 sq ft = $17,715
Average: $150 * 324.8 sq ft= $48,720

Wind:

Most commercial wind turbines range between 2 and 3 MW, and in 2007 it cost $1.2 million to $2.6 million, per MW of nameplate capacity installed.

We still need to factor in efficiency which on commercial systems can range between 20% and 45% (In ND).

Best Case 3000kWh*.45 = 1350kWh ~3.6 million

Average 3000kWh*.25 = 750kWh ~$4.5 million

Good: Annual power production 1350kWh*24*365 = 11826000 kWh/year
Average: Annual power production 750kWh*24*365 = 6570000 kWh/year

30 year lifespan * 11826000 kWh/year = 354,780,000 kWh/ 30 years
30 year lifespan * 6570000 kWh/year = 197,100,000 kWh/ 30 years

Oil:

There really is no such thing as average when it comes to the cumulative production of an oil well, but most modern oil well in the US will yield somewhere between 200,000 and 2.5 million barrels of oil over their life time. (30-50 years in many cases.) It is also important to note that the payback is front loaded meaning production is very high when a well is brought online and declines over the life of the well. What that really means is that the pay back period is relatively fast.

Barrel of oil equivalent (boe) = approx. 6.1 GJ (5.8 million Btu), equivalent to 1,700 kWh. “Petroleum barrel” is a liquid measure equal to 42 U.S. gallons (35 Imperial gallons or 159 liters); about 7.2 barrels oil are equivalent to one tonne of oil (metric) = 42-45 GJ.

Good well 1700kWh * 2,000,000 barrels = 3,400,000,000 kWh
Bad well 1700kWh * 200,000 barrels = 340,000,000 kWh

The previous calculation got me accused of trying to skew the results, but realistically it is difficult to find efficiency values for how much energy is actually usable from a barrel of oil. The reason I originaly did not factor efficiency on oil is because the energy does exist and is stored in a barrel of oil even if it is not properly used. Efficiency was factored into solar and wind energy because energy is not tangible if it is not created and therefor it is necessary to factor it in.

With the last statement said we all know that energy from oil is used poorly in most cases so it is safe to assume efficiency factors that range between 20 and 60%.

.6 * 3,400,000,000 kWh = 2,040,000,000 kWh
.6 * 340,000,000 kWh = 20,400,000 kWh

.2 * 3,400,000,000 kWh = 680,000,000 kWh
.2 * 340,000,000 kWh = 68,000,000 kWh

Just to make sure solar cells don’t feel left out we will say that oil wells and wind towers have about a one acre footprint 43560 sq ft (more like .25 acre) .  Which will cost you… $100(bulk rate) * 43560*= $4,356,000.   So now our cost for each energy source is between 4 and 5 million US dollars.  This is how it shakes out.
Average: 43560 sq ft* 27.4kWh/y *30 years = 35,806,320 kWh/ 30 years
Good: 43560 sq ft* 75.4kWh/y *30 years = 98,532,720 kWh/ 30 years

This chart is approximate, but did attempt to use real world numbers. Considering a 4.5 to 5.5 million dollar input cost with a 30 year lifespan. This Graphic will be updated!

The most important detail that is not depicted in this chart is that the payback time for petroleum based power sources is rapid because petroleum production is typically high soon after a well is brought online. Over time petroleum production declines, but the company has already made all of the input cost back and moved on to drill more wells. Solar and wind return energy consistently but slowly which makes it difficult to rapidly grow. Growth in wind production has to be based on some forum of credit and long term planning which isn’t something that makes share holders happy (the same is somewhat true for tax subsidies too).  The input cost and energy requirements that go into producing oil is very high and the efficiency is low,  but none of that seems to matter as long as the payback period is short.

Sources:

Energy Conversions:  http://bioenergy.ornl.gov/papers/misc/energy_conv.html

Solar and Wind estimates: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=110997398

Solar Efficiency: http://sroeco.com/solar/most-efficient-solar-panels

Wind power pricing and rating: http://www.windustry.org/how-much-do-wind-turbines-cost

Over the last year a large anti-fracking movement developed across much of the United States. Josh Fox’s documentary “Gasland” managed to convince people that fracking will contaminate the drinking water all across our country.  Most of his documentary is a complete lie, but that is not going to be the focus of this post. What is the focus of this post is to try to educate people about fracking.

Natural gas is the target of most of today’s fracking, and fracking has increases the proven and unproven reserves of natural gas from having a few decades worth, to having hundreds of years worth. It appears that the growth in reserves can be expected to grow significantly over the next decade as the fracking process is improved and more areas are explored.

The amount of energy that can be unlocked using hydraulic fracturing is significantly greater than all of the oil that will ever come out of the ground in the Middle East, and if our country would further develop its infrastructure for natural gas we could effectively stop our dependence on countries that take great pride in causing physical and financial damage to us.  The living conditions for everyone in the world is effectively dependent on how much energy they consume, and alternative fuels are not a viable option as long as they can not be offered at a competitive price. 

It is important that the anti-fracking movement not go too far over the coming years. Currently the states are responsible for fracking regulations within their respective states, and I personally hope that it remains that way. However, it appears that many of the states on the East Coast and a few others are having a hard time regulating the drilling and fracking.  Fracking fluids are not being disposed of properly in some cases giving the anti-fracking movement ammunition to push bans on fracking. The goal of Josh Fox is to ban fracking in the entire United States, and without an educated public he may get his way.

Fracking should not be banned on a massive scale the benefits far outweigh any possible accidents, and proper regulation in states like North Dakota prove that Fracking can be done safely.

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Addressing Common Misconceptions:

Fracking fluid will migrate up from the shale layer to drinking water

• Fracking does not put drinking water in danger when conducted responsibly.

Explanation: People seem to have a general misunderstanding of the water table. They seem to think that all water underground is connected when in reality there is effectively no communication between layers.  Shales typically act as barriers to vertical flow. Now you may be thinking, “but they are fracturing the shale so contaminated water will be released into the drinking water.”  You are wrong because you are forgetting or may not know that fracturing is taking place thousands of feet below ground, and between the target shale and drinking water there are many layers of other rock.  Think about it like a book only some of the pages are made of sponge and some are made from plastic (really thick pages). If water cracks one page made of plastic (shale) you will contaminate the neighboring sponge (sandstone) page above, but at that point the contaminated water is able to flow laterally and the pressure drops so the next plastic page (rock layer) will not crack.

East Coast Specific: In New York and Pennsylvania there are many significant sandstone (sponge) units that stand between the Marcellus Shale and any potential drinking water sources.

Additional Problem:  People have come to associate flaming sinks with Fracking.  The reality is that flaming sinks have always been common.

If there is gas in drinking water in eastern states it is much more likely to be from a rock unit much closer to the surface and may or may not be related to oil and gas companies. Nearly all of the rock units in New York appear to contain at least some natural gas which implies that it is migrating upward. The migration of the gas has probably taken millions of years, but based on the fact that natural gas is found so close to surface it should not be uncommon to find natural gas in water wells. If gas is suddenly found in drinking water after drilling takes place is may just mean that the oil company release gas near the surface.  Fracking fluids will not be  found in water samples, but the water that becomes mobile from gas movement is still nasty stuff that shouldn’t be drank.

Modified from 2002 NYSERDA Report, Fractured Gas Shale Potential in New York, prepared by TICORA Geosciences, Inc

In North Dakota shallow natural gas has been found in 52 of 53 N.D. counties, and even though hundreds of oil wells are fracked every year it is highly unlikely that any of the discovered gas can be related to oil companies in anyway. The gas was discovered using old water wells in ares that are both near and far from active oil fields. https://www.dmr.nd.gov/ndgs/shallowgas/sgasnew.asp

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Fracking will contaminate drinking water on a large scale inducing New York City.

• Fracking will not contaminate the drinking water of large cities.

Explanation: It sounds bad, but large cities use a lot of water so even if fracking fluid did get into a large cities drinking water it would get diluted to a safe level. Fracking fluid needs to be taken seriously,  but in the unlikely event that there is a significant leak most large water sources could handle the contaminates.

The solution to pollution is dilution. (stupid statement) I know it sounds like I am downplaying the problem, but it really is that simple.  You are probably exposed to more nasty stuff every day. People should probably be more concerned with the water that runs out of the street gutters and off walmart parking lots than fracking chemicals. (Walmart did clean up a lot after the documentary “high cost of low prices” came out, and I expect the oil industry is going to be a lot more careful in the future too.)

Fracking could/can cause localized problems such as a single home’s water can be rendered useless, but on a large scale there should be no major problems as long as regulations are in place.

New York  City Specific Answer:  More than half of your water is provided through a leaky aqueduct, but the advantage is that there is a positive pressure in the aqueduct so things only leak out and not in. (unfortunate for some of the towns north of the city)

The Future of Fracking:

All of the recent negative publicity is making oil companies rethink the use of some of the chemicals that they have used in the past. Halliburton (everyone’s favorite) has already developed a fracking fluid called CleanStim which uses ingredients soured from the food industry. I expect that increased pressure from anti-fracking groups will eventually move the industry in that direction, but I reiterate fracking bans are a poor solution to a solve problem that is not really a problem.

If fracking were banned it would probably stop peoples water wells from being contaminated because there would be no drilling at all, but in many or most cases it is probably just a problem with drilling and not fracking.

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Soon to come…. The Importance of Natural Gas in America’s Future.

I may add a little to this post. I skipped a lot of important information.  If you can think of anything I should add let me know.  If anything is unclear let me know and I will try to fix it.  If you disagree tell me why.